Marseille
Toulouse
Marseille – Toulouse
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.69 – 1.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Marseille at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.69 goals for Marseille and 1.22 for Toulouse. Bookmakers say the same thing: 49 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Marseille took 9 points and Toulouse 9 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Marseille, 2 draws, 0 wins for Toulouse. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marseille | 1.93 | 49 % | -7.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | +1.2 % |
| 2Toulouse | 3.58 | 27 % | -3.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Marseille
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Toulouse
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Marseille
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Toulouse
- Toulouse0-1Marseille
- Marseille2-2Toulouse
- Marseille2-2Toulouse
- Marseille3-2Toulouse
- Toulouse1-3Marseille
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Marseille – Toulouse?
Our model gives 1 · Marseille a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Marseille win 48 %, draw 25 %, Toulouse win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Marseille – Toulouse?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.