Juventus
Napoli
Juventus – Napoli
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Juventus at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.47 goals for Juventus and 1.29 for Napoli. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Juventus took 7 points and Napoli 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Juventus, 1 draw, 3 wins for Napoli. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Juventus | 2.23 | 42 % | -0.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -14.1 % |
| 2Napoli | 3.27 | 29 % | -6.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Juventus
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Napoli
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Juventus
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Napoli
- Juventus3-0Napoli
- Napoli2-1Juventus
- Napoli2-1Juventus
- Juventus0-0Napoli
- Napoli2-1Juventus
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Juventus – Napoli?
Our model gives 1 · Juventus a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Juventus win 45 %, draw 27 %, Napoli win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Juventus – Napoli?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.