Intility Arena
Vålerenga
Tromso
Vålerenga – Tromso
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-28 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.61 – 1.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Tromso away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.61 goals for Vålerenga and 1.57 for Tromso. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Vålerenga took 7 points and Tromso 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Vålerenga, 2 draws, 2 wins for Tromso. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vålerenga | 2.45 | 38 % | -9.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | -6.3 % |
| 2Tromso | 2.55 | 37 % | -4.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Vålerenga
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tromso
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Vålerenga
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Tromso
- Tromso4-0Vålerenga
- Vålerenga1-0Tromso
- Tromso2-1Vålerenga
- Vålerenga1-1Tromso
- Tromso0-0Vålerenga
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vålerenga – Tromso?
Our model gives 2 · Tromso a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Vålerenga win 37 %, draw 26 %, Tromso win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Vålerenga – Tromso?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.