Panathinaikos
AEK Athens
Panathinaikos – AEK Athens
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Panathinaikos at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.51 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.32 for AEK Athens. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Panathinaikos took 12 points and AEK Athens 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Panathinaikos, 1 draw, 3 wins for AEK Athens. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Panathinaikos | 2.25 | 42 % | -4.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -12.6 % |
| 2AEK Athens | 3.15 | 30 % | -3.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Panathinaikos
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AEK Athens
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Panathinaikos
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- AEK Athens
- AEK Athens2-1Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos0-0AEK Athens
- AEK Athens4-0Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos2-3AEK Athens
- AEK Athens1-2Panathinaikos
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Panathinaikos – AEK Athens?
Our model gives 1 · Panathinaikos a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Panathinaikos win 42 %, draw 27 %, AEK Athens win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Panathinaikos – AEK Athens?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.