Predictions are closed for this match.
Le Mans
05:15 PM
Sep 13
Lens
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Le Mans | 4.88 | 19 % | +1.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.32 | 22 % | +2.9 % |
| 2Lens | 1.62 | 59 % | -10.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Le Mans
Lens
| Le Mans | Form and statistics | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 1580 | Elo | 1731 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 2.10 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 12.1 | Shots / match | 18.2 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 2 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Lens a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Le Mans win 21 %, draw 24 %, Lens win 55 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 60 %, and both teams scoring at 58 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 4.88 for Le Mans, 4.32 for the draw, 1.62 for Lens.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 05:15 PM (Ligue 1), at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
The model leans towards Lens away from home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.09 goals for Le Mans and 2.00 for Lens. Bookmakers say the same thing: 59 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Le Mans took 6 points and Lens 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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