Burgos
Castellón
Burgos – Castellón
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.13 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Castellón away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.13 goals for Burgos and 1.40 for Castellón. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, Burgos took 9 points and Castellón 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Burgos, 1 draw, 3 wins for Castellón. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burgos | 3.55 | 26 % | +8.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | +0.2 % |
| 2Castellón | 2.05 | 45 % | -20.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Burgos
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Castellón
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Burgos
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Castellón
- Castellón3-1Burgos
- Burgos0-0Castellón
- Castellón2-1Burgos
- Burgos0-2Castellón
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burgos – Castellón?
Our model gives 2 · Castellón a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Burgos win 31 %, draw 30 %, Castellón win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Burgos – Castellón?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.