Liverpool
Arsenal
Liverpool – Arsenal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.34 – 1.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Arsenal away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.34 goals for Liverpool and 1.43 for Arsenal. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Liverpool took 13 points and Arsenal 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Liverpool, 3 draws, 1 win for Arsenal. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Liverpool | 2.89 | 33 % | -4.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.42 | 28 % | -8.9 % |
| 2Arsenal | 2.42 | 39 % | -2.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Liverpool
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Arsenal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Liverpool
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Arsenal
- Arsenal0-0Liverpool
- Liverpool1-0Arsenal
- Liverpool2-2Arsenal
- Arsenal2-2Liverpool
- Arsenal3-1Liverpool
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Liverpool – Arsenal?
Our model gives 2 · Arsenal a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Liverpool win 33 %, draw 27 %, Arsenal win 40 %.
What is the most likely score for Liverpool – Arsenal?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.