Paris FC
AS Monaco
Paris FC – AS Monaco
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Paris FC at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.47 goals for Paris FC and 1.22 for AS Monaco. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Paris FC took 7 points and AS Monaco 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Paris FC, 0 draws, 0 wins for AS Monaco. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris FC | 2.33 | 41 % | -6.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.52 | 27 % | +0.9 % |
| 2AS Monaco | 2.95 | 32 % | -8.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Paris FC
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AS Monaco
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Paris FC
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- AS Monaco
- Paris FC4-1AS Monaco
- AS Monaco0-1Paris FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Paris FC – AS Monaco?
Our model gives 1 · Paris FC a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Paris FC win 40 %, draw 29 %, AS Monaco win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Paris FC – AS Monaco?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.