Lyon
Angers
Lyon – Angers
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 68 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.13 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lyon at home (68 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.13 goals for Lyon and 0.86 for Angers. Bookmakers say the same thing: 68 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Lyon took 6 points and Angers 5 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Lyon, 1 draw, 0 wins for Angers. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lyon | 1.40 | 68 % | -4.4 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 19 % | -1.6 % |
| 2Angers | 7.00 | 14 % | -15.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lyon
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Angers
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Lyon
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Angers
- Angers0-0Lyon
- Lyon1-0Angers
- Lyon2-0Angers
- Angers0-3Lyon
- Angers1-3Lyon
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lyon – Angers?
Our model gives 1 · Lyon a 68 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lyon win 68 %, draw 20 %, Angers win 12 %.
What is the most likely score for Lyon – Angers?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.