Hellas Verona
Carrarese
Hellas Verona – Carrarese
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 0.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hellas Verona at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.59 goals for Hellas Verona and 0.95 for Carrarese. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 58 %. Over their last five matches, Hellas Verona took 8 points and Carrarese 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hellas Verona | 1.60 | 58 % | -15.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +13.0 % |
| 2Carrarese | 5.00 | 19 % | -3.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Hellas Verona
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Carrarese
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hellas Verona – Carrarese?
Our model gives 1 · Hellas Verona a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Hellas Verona win 53 %, draw 28 %, Carrarese win 19 %.
What is the most likely score for Hellas Verona – Carrarese?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.