Predictions are closed for this match.
US Avellino
05:15 PM
Sep 13
Palermo
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1US Avellino | 3.92 | 24 % | -7.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.38 | 28 % | -5.4 % |
| 2Palermo | 1.96 | 48 % | -5.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
US Avellino
Palermo
| US Avellino | Form and statistics | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| 1451 | Elo | 1608 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 10.6 | Shots / match | 14.3 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Palermo a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: US Avellino win 24 %, draw 28 %, Palermo win 48 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 46 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.92 for US Avellino, 3.38 for the draw, 1.96 for Palermo.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 05:15 PM (Serie B), at Partenio.
The model leans towards Palermo away from home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.05 goals for US Avellino and 1.48 for Palermo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, US Avellino took 6 points and Palermo 15 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for US Avellino, 1 draw, 1 win for Palermo. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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