Ceuta
Sporting Gijón
Ceuta – Sporting Gijón
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.26 – 1.20
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ceuta at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.26 goals for Ceuta and 1.20 for Sporting Gijón. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ceuta took 4 points and Sporting Gijón 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Ceuta, 0 draws, 1 win for Sporting Gijón. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ceuta | 2.50 | 38 % | -8.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | +3.8 % |
| 2Sporting Gijón | 2.60 | 36 % | -11.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ceuta
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sporting Gijón
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Ceuta
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Sporting Gijón
- Sporting Gijón1-2Ceuta
- Ceuta0-1Sporting Gijón
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ceuta – Sporting Gijón?
Our model gives 1 · Ceuta a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ceuta win 37 %, draw 29 %, Sporting Gijón win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Ceuta – Sporting Gijón?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.