1. FC Union Berlin
FC Cologne
1. FC Union Berlin – FC Cologne
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 2-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 1.50
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards 1. FC Union Berlin at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.52 goals for 1. FC Union Berlin and 1.50 for FC Cologne. Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, 1. FC Union Berlin took 5 points and FC Cologne 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for 1. FC Union Berlin, 1 draw, 2 wins for FC Cologne. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Union Berlin | 2.65 | 36 % | +0.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -2.1 % |
| 2FC Cologne | 2.50 | 38 % | -14.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
1. FC Union Berlin
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Cologne
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- FC Cologne
- FC Cologne5-01. FC Union Berlin
- 1. FC Union Berlin2-2FC Cologne
- FC Cologne0-11. FC Union Berlin
- FC Cologne3-21. FC Union Berlin
- 1. FC Union Berlin2-0FC Cologne
Frequently asked questions
Who will win 1. FC Union Berlin – FC Cologne?
Our model gives 1 · 1. FC Union Berlin a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: 1. FC Union Berlin win 38 %, draw 28 %, FC Cologne win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for 1. FC Union Berlin – FC Cologne?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.