Excelsior
FC Twente
Excelsior – FC Twente
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 61 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.09 – 2.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Twente away from home (61 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.09 goals for Excelsior and 2.28 for FC Twente. Bookmakers say the same thing: 60 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Excelsior took 4 points and FC Twente 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Excelsior, 2 draws, 2 wins for FC Twente. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Excelsior | 4.90 | 19 % | -17.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | -3.2 % |
| 2FC Twente | 1.57 | 60 % | -3.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Excelsior
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Twente
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Excelsior
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- FC Twente
- FC Twente0-0Excelsior
- Excelsior1-0FC Twente
- Excelsior0-3FC Twente
- FC Twente4-2Excelsior
- Excelsior0-0FC Twente
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Excelsior – FC Twente?
Our model gives 2 · FC Twente a 61 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Excelsior win 17 %, draw 22 %, FC Twente win 61 %.
What is the most likely score for Excelsior – FC Twente?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.