Malmö FF
Hammarby IF
Malmö FF – Hammarby IF
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.21 – 1.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hammarby IF away from home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.21 goals for Malmö FF and 1.58 for Hammarby IF. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 56 %. Over their last five matches, Malmö FF took 7 points and Hammarby IF 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Malmö FF, 1 draw, 3 wins for Hammarby IF. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Malmö FF | 4.40 | 21 % | +26.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | +9.6 % |
| 2Hammarby IF | 1.68 | 56 % | -26.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Malmö FF
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Hammarby IF
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Malmö FF
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Hammarby IF
- Hammarby IF4-1Malmö FF
- Malmö FF1-3Hammarby IF
- Hammarby IF2-0Malmö FF
- Hammarby IF2-2Malmö FF
- Malmö FF2-0Hammarby IF
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Malmö FF – Hammarby IF?
Our model gives 2 · Hammarby IF a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Malmö FF win 29 %, draw 27 %, Hammarby IF win 44 %.
What is the most likely score for Malmö FF – Hammarby IF?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.