Falkirk
Celtic
Falkirk – Celtic
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.10 – 1.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Celtic away from home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.10 goals for Falkirk and 1.95 for Celtic. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 65 %. Over their last five matches, Falkirk took 10 points and Celtic 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Falkirk, 0 draws, 5 wins for Celtic. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Falkirk | 5.38 | 17 % | +2.6 % |
| XDraw | 5.10 | 18 % | +20.1 % |
| 2Celtic | 1.44 | 65 % | -17.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Falkirk
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Celtic
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Falkirk
- 0 draws
- 5 wins
- Celtic
- Celtic2-1Falkirk
- Celtic3-1Falkirk
- Celtic2-0Falkirk
- Falkirk0-1Celtic
- Celtic4-0Falkirk
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Falkirk – Celtic?
Our model gives 2 · Celtic a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Falkirk win 19 %, draw 24 %, Celtic win 57 %.
What is the most likely score for Falkirk – Celtic?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.