St. Pauli
1. FC Nürnberg
St. Pauli – 1. FC Nürnberg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.46 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards St. Pauli at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.46 goals for St. Pauli and 1.40 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, St. Pauli took 9 points and 1. FC Nürnberg 5 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for St. Pauli, 1 draw, 0 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Pauli | 2.15 | 44 % | -18.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -2.5 % |
| 21. FC Nürnberg | 3.10 | 30 % | +8.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
St. Pauli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
1. FC Nürnberg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- St. Pauli
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- 1. FC Nürnberg
- St. Pauli5-11. FC Nürnberg
- 1. FC Nürnberg0-1St. Pauli
- St. Pauli3-21. FC Nürnberg
- St. Pauli1-11. FC Nürnberg
- 1. FC Nürnberg2-3St. Pauli
Frequently asked questions
Who will win St. Pauli – 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model gives 1 · St. Pauli a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: St. Pauli win 38 %, draw 27 %, 1. FC Nürnberg win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for St. Pauli – 1. FC Nürnberg?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.