Predictions are closed for this match.
SK Sturm Graz
05:00 PM
Sep 13
LASK Linz
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1SK Sturm Graz | 3.48 | 27 % | -4.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.77 | 25 % | -4.6 % |
| 2LASK Linz | 1.93 | 48 % | -8.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
SK Sturm Graz
LASK Linz
| SK Sturm Graz | Form and statistics | LASK Linz |
|---|---|---|
| 1624 | Elo | 1684 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 2.50 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 16.6 | Shots / match | 19.9 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 14 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · LASK Linz a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: SK Sturm Graz win 27 %, draw 25 %, LASK Linz win 47 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 53 %, and both teams scoring at 56 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.48 for SK Sturm Graz, 3.77 for the draw, 1.93 for LASK Linz.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (Austrian Bundesliga), at Merkur Arena.
The model leans towards LASK Linz away from home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.17 goals for SK Sturm Graz and 1.64 for LASK Linz. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, SK Sturm Graz took 7 points and LASK Linz 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for SK Sturm Graz, 2 draws, 1 win for LASK Linz. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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