Predictions are closed for this match.
Racing Genk
04:00 PM
Sep 13
KAA Gent
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Racing Genk | 2.17 | 43 % | +16.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.27 | 28 % | -14.7 % |
| 2KAA Gent | 3.17 | 29 % | -34.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Racing Genk
KAA Gent
| Racing Genk | Form and statistics | KAA Gent |
|---|---|---|
| 1624 | Elo | 1597 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded / match | 0.50 |
| 16.0 | Shots / match | 7.3 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Racing Genk a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Racing Genk win 53 %, draw 26 %, KAA Gent win 21 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 50 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.17 for Racing Genk, 3.27 for the draw, 3.17 for KAA Gent.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (Belgian Pro League), at Cegeka Arena.
The model leans towards Racing Genk at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.65 goals for Racing Genk and 1.02 for KAA Gent. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. Over their last five matches, Racing Genk took 8 points and KAA Gent 13 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Racing Genk, 2 draws, 0 wins for KAA Gent. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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