Monterrey
Tijuana
Monterrey – Tijuana
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.72 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Monterrey at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.72 goals for Monterrey and 1.14 for Tijuana. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Monterrey took 7 points and Tijuana 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Monterrey, 4 draws, 1 win for Tijuana. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monterrey | 1.55 | 60 % | -21.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | +12.3 % |
| 2Tijuana | 5.00 | 19 % | +19.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Monterrey
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tijuana
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Monterrey
- 4 draws
- 1 win
- Tijuana
- Monterrey2-2Tijuana
- Tijuana2-2Monterrey
- Monterrey1-2Tijuana
- Tijuana2-2Monterrey
- Tijuana1-1Monterrey
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Monterrey – Tijuana?
Our model gives 1 · Monterrey a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Monterrey win 51 %, draw 26 %, Tijuana win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Monterrey – Tijuana?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.