Pachuca
Tigres UANL
Pachuca – Tigres UANL
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 1.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Pachuca at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.49 goals for Pachuca and 1.19 for Tigres UANL. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Pachuca took 4 points and Tigres UANL 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Pachuca, 1 draw, 2 wins for Tigres UANL. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pachuca | 2.20 | 42 % | -4.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | 0.0 % |
| 2Tigres UANL | 3.00 | 31 % | -16.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Pachuca
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tigres UANL
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Pachuca
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL1-2Pachuca
- Pachuca1-2Tigres UANL
- Pachuca0-0Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL2-1Pachuca
- Tigres UANL0-3Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Pachuca – Tigres UANL?
Our model gives 1 · Pachuca a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Pachuca win 44 %, draw 29 %, Tigres UANL win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Pachuca – Tigres UANL?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.