Vélez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo
Vélez Sarsfield – San Lorenzo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 1-015 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 0.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41 %
- Both teams to score
- 43 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Vélez Sarsfield at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.51 goals for Vélez Sarsfield and 0.80 for San Lorenzo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 48 %. Over their last five matches, Vélez Sarsfield took 10 points and San Lorenzo 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Vélez Sarsfield, 3 draws, 1 win for San Lorenzo. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vélez Sarsfield | 1.95 | 48 % | +4.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -10.7 % |
| 2San Lorenzo | 4.10 | 23 % | -25.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Vélez Sarsfield
- Last 5 matches
- At home
San Lorenzo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Vélez Sarsfield
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo0-0Vélez Sarsfield
- San Lorenzo1-0Vélez Sarsfield
- Vélez Sarsfield0-0San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo0-1Vélez Sarsfield
- Vélez Sarsfield0-0San Lorenzo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vélez Sarsfield – San Lorenzo?
Our model gives 1 · Vélez Sarsfield a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Vélez Sarsfield win 54 %, draw 28 %, San Lorenzo win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for Vélez Sarsfield – San Lorenzo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 15 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.