Predictions are closed for this match.
RB Leipzig
03:30 PM
Sep 13
Hamburg SV
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1RB Leipzig | 1.38 | 68 % | -4.4 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | -2.6 % |
| 2Hamburg SV | 7.00 | 14 % | -14.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
RB Leipzig
Hamburg SV
| RB Leipzig | Form and statistics | Hamburg SV |
|---|---|---|
| 1683 | Elo | 1566 |
| 2.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded / match | 2.10 |
| 19.0 | Shots / match | 11.8 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 2 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · RB Leipzig a 69 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: RB Leipzig win 69 %, draw 19 %, Hamburg SV win 12 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 66 %, and both teams scoring at 54 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.38 for RB Leipzig, 5.25 for the draw, 7.00 for Hamburg SV.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 03:30 PM (Bundesliga), at Red Bull Arena.
The model leans towards RB Leipzig at home (69 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.49 goals for RB Leipzig and 0.89 for Hamburg SV. Bookmakers say the same thing: 68 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, RB Leipzig took 6 points and Hamburg SV 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for RB Leipzig, 0 draws, 0 wins for Hamburg SV. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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