Vila Nova
Juventude
Vila Nova – Juventude
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Vila Nova at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.39 goals for Vila Nova and 1.09 for Juventude. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Vila Nova took 8 points and Juventude 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Vila Nova, 0 draws, 1 win for Juventude. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vila Nova | 2.40 | 39 % | +3.8 % |
| XDraw | 2.85 | 33 % | -11.8 % |
| 2Juventude | 3.30 | 28 % | -14.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Vila Nova
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Juventude
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Vila Nova
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Juventude
- Juventude1-0Vila Nova
- Vila Nova1-0Juventude
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vila Nova – Juventude?
Our model gives 1 · Vila Nova a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Vila Nova win 43 %, draw 31 %, Juventude win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Vila Nova – Juventude?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.