Botafogo-SP
Sport
Botafogo-SP – Sport
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.31 – 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Botafogo-SP at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.31 goals for Botafogo-SP and 1.04 for Sport. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. Over their last five matches, Botafogo-SP took 12 points and Sport 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Botafogo-SP, 3 draws, 2 wins for Sport. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Botafogo-SP | 2.55 | 36 % | +13.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 29 % | -9.1 % |
| 2Sport | 2.70 | 34 % | -27.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Botafogo-SP
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sport
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Botafogo-SP
- 3 draws
- 2 wins
- Sport
- Sport3-3Botafogo-SP
- Sport3-1Botafogo-SP
- Botafogo-SP1-1Sport
- Botafogo-SP1-1Sport
- Botafogo-SP0-2Sport
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Botafogo-SP – Sport?
Our model gives 1 · Botafogo-SP a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Botafogo-SP win 44 %, draw 29 %, Sport win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Botafogo-SP – Sport?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.