Coritiba
Vitória
Coritiba – Vitória
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.38 – 1.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Coritiba at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.38 goals for Coritiba and 1.22 for Vitória. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Coritiba took 1 point and Vitória 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Coritiba, 2 draws, 1 win for Vitória. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coritiba | 2.30 | 41 % | -4.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -2.6 % |
| 2Vitória | 3.00 | 31 % | -13.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Coritiba
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vitória
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Coritiba
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Vitória
- Vitória4-1Coritiba
- Vitória0-0Coritiba
- Coritiba1-0Vitória
- Vitória1-2Coritiba
- Coritiba1-1Vitória
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Coritiba – Vitória?
Our model gives 1 · Coritiba a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Coritiba win 42 %, draw 30 %, Vitória win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Coritiba – Vitória?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.