Predictions are closed for this match.
Lille
03:00 PM
Sep 13
Troyes
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lille | 1.50 | 63 % | -13.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.55 | 21 % | +3.4 % |
| 2Troyes | 6.00 | 16 % | +18.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Lille
Troyes
| Lille | Form and statistics | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| 1694 | Elo | 1592 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 2.00 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 11.0 | Shots / match | 14.5 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Lille a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lille win 58 %, draw 23 %, Troyes win 20 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 52 %, and both teams scoring at 53 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.50 for Lille, 4.55 for the draw, 6.00 for Troyes.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (Ligue 1), at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
The model leans towards Lille at home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.77 goals for Lille and 0.99 for Troyes. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 63 %. Over their last five matches, Lille took 7 points and Troyes 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Lille, 1 draw, 0 wins for Troyes. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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