Predictions are closed for this match.
Lecce
03:00 PM
Sep 13
Monza
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lecce | 2.86 | 33 % | -7.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.00 | 31 % | -15.1 % |
| 2Monza | 2.64 | 36 % | +3.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Lecce
Monza
| Lecce | Form and statistics | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| 1485 | Elo | 1574 |
| 0.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 10.8 | Shots / match | 14.0 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Monza a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lecce win 32 %, draw 28 %, Monza win 39 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 44 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.86 for Lecce, 3.00 for the draw, 2.64 for Monza.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (Serie A), at Via Del Mare.
The model leans towards Monza away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.17 goals for Lecce and 1.26 for Monza. Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Lecce took 6 points and Monza 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Lecce, 3 draws, 0 wins for Monza. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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