Lecce
3-2
Monza
Lecce – Monza
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.26
The short version
Final score: Lecce 3-2 Monza. The model predicted a win for Monza (39 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.17 goals for Lecce and 1.26 for Monza. Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Lecce took 6 points and Monza 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Lecce, 3 draws, 0 wins for Monza. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lecce | 2.86 | 33 % | -7.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.00 | 31 % | -15.1 % |
| 2Monza | 2.64 | 36 % | +3.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lecce
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Monza
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Lecce
- 3 draws
- 0 wins
- Monza
- Monza0-0Lecce
- Lecce2-1Monza
- Lecce1-1Monza
- Monza1-1Lecce
- Monza0-1Lecce
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Lecce – Monza?
Final score: Lecce 3-2 Monza. The model predicted a win for Monza (39 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Lecce – Monza?
Our model gives 2 · Monza a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lecce win 32 %, draw 28 %, Monza win 39 %.