FC Porto
Estoril
FC Porto – Estoril
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 79 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.45 – 0.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Porto at home (79 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.45 goals for FC Porto and 0.74 for Estoril. Bookmakers say the same thing: 78 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Porto took 9 points and Estoril 1 point. In recent meetings: 4 wins for FC Porto, 0 draws, 1 win for Estoril. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Porto | 1.18 | 78 % | -6.6 % |
| XDraw | 6.25 | 15 % | -10.1 % |
| 2Estoril | 13.50 | 7 % | -12.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Porto
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Estoril
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- FC Porto
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Estoril
- Estoril1-3FC Porto
- FC Porto1-0Estoril
- Estoril1-2FC Porto
- FC Porto4-0Estoril
- Estoril1-0FC Porto
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Porto – Estoril?
Our model gives 1 · FC Porto a 79 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Porto win 79 %, draw 14 %, Estoril win 7 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Porto – Estoril?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.