Ajax Amsterdam
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax Amsterdam – AZ Alkmaar
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.14 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 65 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ajax Amsterdam at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.14 goals for Ajax Amsterdam and 1.32 for AZ Alkmaar. Bookmakers say the same thing: 58 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ajax Amsterdam took 10 points and AZ Alkmaar 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Ajax Amsterdam, 2 draws, 3 wins for AZ Alkmaar. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 65 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ajax Amsterdam | 1.62 | 58 % | -12.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | +2.4 % |
| 2AZ Alkmaar | 4.30 | 22 % | +0.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ajax Amsterdam
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AZ Alkmaar
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Ajax Amsterdam
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- AZ Alkmaar
- AZ Alkmaar1-1Ajax Amsterdam
- AZ Alkmaar6-0Ajax Amsterdam
- Ajax Amsterdam0-2AZ Alkmaar
- Ajax Amsterdam2-2AZ Alkmaar
- AZ Alkmaar2-0Ajax Amsterdam
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ajax Amsterdam – AZ Alkmaar?
Our model gives 1 · Ajax Amsterdam a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ajax Amsterdam win 54 %, draw 23 %, AZ Alkmaar win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Ajax Amsterdam – AZ Alkmaar?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.