Barcelona
Alavés
Barcelona – Alavés
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 85 %
- Most likely score
- 3-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.24 – 0.75
- Over 2.5 goals
- 76 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Barcelona at home (85 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.24 goals for Barcelona and 0.75 for Alavés. Bookmakers say the same thing: 87 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Barcelona took 9 points and Alavés 2 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Barcelona, 0 draws, 1 win for Alavés. Over 2.5 goals: 76 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | 1.10 | 87 % | -7.0 % |
| XDraw | 11.00 | 9 % | +20.4 % |
| 2Alavés | 20.00 | 5 % | -9.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Barcelona
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Alavés
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Barcelona
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Alavés
- Alavés1-0Barcelona
- Barcelona3-1Alavés
- Barcelona1-0Alavés
- Alavés0-3Barcelona
- Alavés1-3Barcelona
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Barcelona – Alavés?
Our model gives 1 · Barcelona a 85 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Barcelona win 85 %, draw 11 %, Alavés win 5 %.
What is the most likely score for Barcelona – Alavés?
The most likely score is 3-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.