Waasland-Beveren
Union St.-Gilloise
Waasland-Beveren – Union St.-Gilloise
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 78 %
- Most likely score
- 0-310 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.79 – 3.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Union St.-Gilloise away from home (78 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-3. It expects 0.79 goals for Waasland-Beveren and 3.10 for Union St.-Gilloise. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 63 %. Over their last five matches, Waasland-Beveren took 7 points and Union St.-Gilloise 11 points. Over 2.5 goals: 74 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Waasland-Beveren | 5.75 | 16 % | -53.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | -38.0 % |
| 2Union St.-Gilloise | 1.48 | 63 % | +15.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Waasland-Beveren
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Union St.-Gilloise
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Waasland-Beveren – Union St.-Gilloise?
Our model gives 2 · Union St.-Gilloise a 78 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Waasland-Beveren win 8 %, draw 14 %, Union St.-Gilloise win 78 %.
What is the most likely score for Waasland-Beveren – Union St.-Gilloise?
The most likely score is 0-3, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.