Troyes
Le Mans
Troyes – Le Mans
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.18
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Troyes at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.45 goals for Troyes and 1.18 for Le Mans. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Troyes took 1 point and Le Mans 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Troyes, 1 draw, 1 win for Le Mans. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Troyes | 2.36 | 40 % | +0.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -0.5 % |
| 2Le Mans | 2.92 | 33 % | -15.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Troyes
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Le Mans
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Troyes
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Le Mans
- Troyes0-2Le Mans
- Le Mans2-2Troyes
- Troyes2-1Le Mans
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Troyes – Le Mans?
Our model gives 1 · Troyes a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Troyes win 43 %, draw 28 %, Le Mans win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Troyes – Le Mans?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.