AC Milan
Internazionale
AC Milan – Internazionale
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.16 – 1.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Internazionale away from home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.16 goals for AC Milan and 1.81 for Internazionale. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 48 %. Over their last five matches, AC Milan took 9 points and Internazionale 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for AC Milan, 2 draws, 0 wins for Internazionale. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AC Milan | 3.50 | 27 % | -21.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -11.1 % |
| 2Internazionale | 1.95 | 48 % | +4.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AC Milan
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Internazionale
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- AC Milan
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Internazionale
- AC Milan1-0Internazionale
- Internazionale0-1AC Milan
- Internazionale0-3AC Milan
- AC Milan1-1Internazionale
- AC Milan1-1Internazionale
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AC Milan – Internazionale?
Our model gives 2 · Internazionale a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AC Milan win 23 %, draw 24 %, Internazionale win 53 %.
What is the most likely score for AC Milan – Internazionale?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.