Al Hilal
Al Fateh
Al Hilal – Al Fateh
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 88 %
- Most likely score
- 3-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.48 – 0.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 79 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Hilal at home (88 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.48 goals for Al Hilal and 0.71 for Al Fateh. Bookmakers say the same thing: 87 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Al Hilal took 12 points and Al Fateh 3 points. In recent meetings: 5 wins for Al Hilal, 0 draws, 0 wins for Al Fateh. Over 2.5 goals: 79 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Hilal | 1.07 | 87 % | -5.9 % |
| XDraw | 12.00 | 8 % | +2.0 % |
| 2Al Fateh | 16.00 | 6 % | -43.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Al Hilal
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Fateh
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 5 wins
- Al Hilal
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Al Fateh
- Al Fateh0-1Al Hilal
- Al Hilal4-1Al Fateh
- Al Hilal2-1Al Fateh
- Al Fateh3-4Al Hilal
- Al Hilal9-0Al Fateh
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Hilal – Al Fateh?
Our model gives 1 · Al Hilal a 88 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Hilal win 88 %, draw 9 %, Al Fateh win 4 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Hilal – Al Fateh?
The most likely score is 3-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.