PSV Eindhoven
Willem II
PSV Eindhoven – Willem II
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 89 %
- Most likely score
- 4-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 4.64 – 0.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 90 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards PSV Eindhoven at home (89 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 4-0. It expects 4.64 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.66 for Willem II. Bookmakers say the same thing: 88 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, PSV Eindhoven took 7 points and Willem II 3 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 draw, 1 win for Willem II. Over 2.5 goals: 90 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | 1.06 | 88 % | -5.3 % |
| XDraw | 13.00 | 7 % | -2.1 % |
| 2Willem II | 20.00 | 5 % | -36.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
PSV Eindhoven
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Willem II
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- PSV Eindhoven
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Willem II
- PSV Eindhoven1-1Willem II
- Willem II0-2PSV Eindhoven
- PSV Eindhoven4-2Willem II
- Willem II2-1PSV Eindhoven
- Willem II0-2PSV Eindhoven
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PSV Eindhoven – Willem II?
Our model gives 1 · PSV Eindhoven a 89 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: PSV Eindhoven win 89 %, draw 8 %, Willem II win 3 %.
What is the most likely score for PSV Eindhoven – Willem II?
The most likely score is 4-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.