Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 74 %
- Most likely score
- 3-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.07 – 1.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 77 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayern Munich at home (74 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-1. It expects 3.07 goals for Bayern Munich and 1.00 for Borussia Dortmund. Bookmakers say the same thing: 70 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Bayern Munich took 11 points and Borussia Dortmund 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Bayern Munich, 2 draws, 1 win for Borussia Dortmund. Over 2.5 goals: 77 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern Munich | 1.33 | 70 % | -2.2 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | -9.3 % |
| 2Borussia Dortmund | 7.25 | 13 % | -29.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Bayern Munich
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Borussia Dortmund
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Bayern Munich
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund2-3Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich2-1Borussia Dortmund
- Bayern Munich2-2Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund1-1Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich0-2Borussia Dortmund
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund?
Our model gives 1 · Bayern Munich a 74 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bayern Munich win 74 %, draw 17 %, Borussia Dortmund win 10 %.
What is the most likely score for Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund?
The most likely score is 3-1, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.