Color Line Stadium
Aalesund
Sandefjord
Aalesund – Sandefjord
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 1.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sandefjord away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.29 goals for Aalesund and 1.80 for Sandefjord. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 28 %. Over their last five matches, Aalesund took 6 points and Sandefjord 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Aalesund, 1 draw, 3 wins for Sandefjord. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aalesund | 1.95 | 48 % | -43.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | +7.0 % |
| 2Sandefjord | 3.35 | 28 % | +45.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Aalesund
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sandefjord
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Aalesund
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Sandefjord
- Sandefjord1-0Aalesund
- Aalesund0-3Sandefjord
- Sandefjord4-0Aalesund
- Aalesund1-0Sandefjord
- Sandefjord2-2Aalesund
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Aalesund – Sandefjord?
Our model gives 2 · Sandefjord a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Aalesund win 29 %, draw 28 %, Sandefjord win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for Aalesund – Sandefjord?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.