Eibar
Almería
Eibar – Almería
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.42 – 1.18
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Eibar at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.42 goals for Eibar and 1.18 for Almería. Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Eibar took 7 points and Almería 13 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Eibar, 1 draw, 1 win for Almería. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Eibar | 2.60 | 36 % | +3.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | +0.4 % |
| 2Almería | 2.55 | 37 % | -20.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Eibar
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Almería
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Eibar
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Almería
- Eibar1-0Almería
- Almería3-1Eibar
- Eibar1-0Almería
- Almería2-2Eibar
- Almería0-2Eibar
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Eibar – Almería?
Our model gives 1 · Eibar a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Eibar win 40 %, draw 29 %, Almería win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Eibar – Almería?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.