Fredrikstad Stadion
Fredrikstad
Rosenborg
Fredrikstad – Rosenborg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 1.87
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Rosenborg away from home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.30 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.87 for Rosenborg. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fredrikstad took 3 points and Rosenborg 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Fredrikstad, 2 draws, 3 wins for Rosenborg. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fredrikstad | 3.85 | 24 % | +5.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -4.4 % |
| 2Rosenborg | 1.83 | 51 % | -13.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Fredrikstad
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Rosenborg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Fredrikstad
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Rosenborg
- Rosenborg4-0Fredrikstad
- Fredrikstad0-2Rosenborg
- Rosenborg1-0Fredrikstad
- Fredrikstad2-2Rosenborg
- Rosenborg1-1Fredrikstad
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fredrikstad – Rosenborg?
Our model gives 2 · Rosenborg a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fredrikstad win 27 %, draw 25 %, Rosenborg win 47 %.
What is the most likely score for Fredrikstad – Rosenborg?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.