Kilmarnock
St Johnstone
Kilmarnock – St Johnstone
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.56 – 1.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Kilmarnock at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.56 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.19 for St Johnstone. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Kilmarnock took 4 points and St Johnstone 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Kilmarnock, 0 draws, 3 wins for St Johnstone. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kilmarnock | 2.30 | 41 % | +3.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -3.0 % |
| 2St Johnstone | 2.81 | 33 % | -22.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Kilmarnock
- Last 5 matches
- At home
St Johnstone
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Kilmarnock
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- St Johnstone
- St Johnstone4-3Kilmarnock
- St Johnstone0-2Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock3-1St Johnstone
- St Johnstone1-0Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock0-3St Johnstone
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kilmarnock – St Johnstone?
Our model gives 1 · Kilmarnock a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Kilmarnock win 45 %, draw 27 %, St Johnstone win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Kilmarnock – St Johnstone?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.