Bolton Wanderers
Bristol City
Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.31 – 1.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bristol City away from home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.31 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.30 for Bristol City. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Bolton Wanderers took 7 points and Bristol City 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bolton Wanderers | 2.85 | 33 % | -1.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.48 | 27 % | +1.4 % |
| 2Bristol City | 2.35 | 40 % | -15.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Bolton Wanderers
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bristol City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City?
Our model gives 2 · Bristol City a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bolton Wanderers win 35 %, draw 29 %, Bristol City win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.