Predictions are closed for this match.
Heerenveen
02:30 PM
Sep 13
Telstar
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Heerenveen | 1.61 | 59 % | -19.2 % |
| XDraw | 4.45 | 21 % | +14.2 % |
| 2Telstar | 4.72 | 20 % | +14.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Heerenveen
Telstar
| Heerenveen | Form and statistics | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| 1556 | Elo | 1522 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 13.4 | Shots / match | 9.3 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Heerenveen a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Heerenveen win 50 %, draw 26 %, Telstar win 24 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 58 %, and both teams scoring at 59 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.61 for Heerenveen, 4.45 for the draw, 4.72 for Telstar.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 02:30 PM (Eredivisie), at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
The model leans towards Heerenveen at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.80 goals for Heerenveen and 1.21 for Telstar. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, Heerenveen took 5 points and Telstar 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Heerenveen, 0 draws, 0 wins for Telstar. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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