Brentford
Nottingham Forest
Brentford – Nottingham Forest
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 1.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Brentford at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.51 goals for Brentford and 1.27 for Nottingham Forest. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Brentford took 5 points and Nottingham Forest 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Brentford, 0 draws, 3 wins for Nottingham Forest. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brentford | 2.05 | 46 % | -9.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | +0.1 % |
| 2Nottingham Forest | 3.48 | 27 % | -0.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Brentford
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Nottingham Forest
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Brentford
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Nottingham Forest
- Brentford0-2Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest3-1Brentford
- Nottingham Forest0-2Brentford
- Brentford0-2Nottingham Forest
- Brentford3-2Nottingham Forest
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Brentford – Nottingham Forest?
Our model gives 1 · Brentford a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Brentford win 44 %, draw 27 %, Nottingham Forest win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Brentford – Nottingham Forest?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.