Werder Bremen
TSG Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 1.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards TSG Hoffenheim away from home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.53 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.66 for TSG Hoffenheim. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Werder Bremen took 8 points and TSG Hoffenheim 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Werder Bremen, 0 draws, 4 wins for TSG Hoffenheim. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Werder Bremen | 2.77 | 34 % | -3.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | +1.9 % |
| 2TSG Hoffenheim | 2.25 | 42 % | -13.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Werder Bremen
- Last 5 matches
- At home
TSG Hoffenheim
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Werder Bremen
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- TSG Hoffenheim
- TSG Hoffenheim1-0Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen0-2TSG Hoffenheim
- Werder Bremen1-3TSG Hoffenheim
- TSG Hoffenheim3-4Werder Bremen
- TSG Hoffenheim2-1Werder Bremen
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim?
Our model gives 2 · TSG Hoffenheim a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Werder Bremen win 35 %, draw 27 %, TSG Hoffenheim win 38 %.
What is the most likely score for Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.