Modena
Mantova
Modena – Mantova
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.67 – 0.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Modena at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.67 goals for Modena and 0.97 for Mantova. Bookmakers say the same thing: 54 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Modena took 12 points and Mantova 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Modena, 1 draw, 0 wins for Mantova. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Modena | 1.71 | 54 % | -8.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -3.2 % |
| 2Mantova | 4.50 | 21 % | -8.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Modena
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mantova
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Modena
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Mantova
- Modena2-1Mantova
- Mantova1-3Modena
- Modena3-1Mantova
- Mantova0-0Modena
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Modena – Mantova?
Our model gives 1 · Modena a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Modena win 53 %, draw 26 %, Mantova win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Modena – Mantova?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.