Cremonese
Benevento
Cremonese – Benevento
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cremonese at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.44 goals for Cremonese and 1.09 for Benevento. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, Cremonese took 5 points and Benevento 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Cremonese, 2 draws, 2 wins for Benevento. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cremonese | 2.70 | 35 % | +22.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -10.8 % |
| 2Benevento | 2.65 | 35 % | -31.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Cremonese
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Benevento
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Cremonese
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Benevento
- Benevento1-1Cremonese
- Cremonese1-1Benevento
- Cremonese0-1Benevento
- Benevento2-0Cremonese
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cremonese – Benevento?
Our model gives 1 · Cremonese a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Cremonese win 45 %, draw 29 %, Benevento win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Cremonese – Benevento?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.