Levante
Atlético Madrid
Levante – Atlético Madrid
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.03 – 1.70
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlético Madrid away from home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.03 goals for Levante and 1.70 for Atlético Madrid. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 61 %. Over their last five matches, Levante took 5 points and Atlético Madrid 13 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Levante, 2 draws, 2 wins for Atlético Madrid. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Levante | 5.00 | 19 % | +9.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.70 | 20 % | +22.1 % |
| 2Atlético Madrid | 1.55 | 61 % | -19.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Levante
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético Madrid
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Levante
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Atlético Madrid
- Levante0-0Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid3-1Levante
- Levante0-2Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid0-1Levante
- Levante2-2Atlético Madrid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Levante – Atlético Madrid?
Our model gives 2 · Atlético Madrid a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Levante win 22 %, draw 26 %, Atlético Madrid win 52 %.
What is the most likely score for Levante – Atlético Madrid?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.