Hammarby IF
02:00 PM
Sep 13
IF Brommapojkarna
Hammarby IF – IF Brommapojkarna
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.34 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hammarby IF at home (73 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.34 goals for Hammarby IF and 0.86 for IF Brommapojkarna. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 80 %. Over their last five matches, Hammarby IF took 7 points and IF Brommapojkarna 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Hammarby IF, 2 draws, 0 wins for IF Brommapojkarna. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hammarby IF | 1.19 | 80 % | -13.6 % |
| XDraw | 7.50 | 13 % | +37.4 % |
| 2IF Brommapojkarna | 12.00 | 8 % | +8.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Hammarby IF
- Last 5 matches
- At home
IF Brommapojkarna
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Hammarby IF | Form and statistics | IF Brommapojkarna |
|---|---|---|
| 1643 | Elo | 1471 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.60 |
| 14.9 | Shots / match | 11.3 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Hammarby IF
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- IF Brommapojkarna
- IF Brommapojkarna1-1Hammarby IF
- Hammarby IF3-2IF Brommapojkarna
- IF Brommapojkarna0-2Hammarby IF
- Hammarby IF3-3IF Brommapojkarna
- IF Brommapojkarna0-2Hammarby IF
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hammarby IF – IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model gives 1 · Hammarby IF a 73 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Hammarby IF win 73 %, draw 18 %, IF Brommapojkarna win 9 %.
What is the most likely score for Hammarby IF – IF Brommapojkarna?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
