Chelsea
Manchester United
Chelsea – Manchester United
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 30, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.67 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Chelsea at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.67 goals for Chelsea and 1.32 for Manchester United. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, Chelsea took 7 points and Manchester United 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Chelsea, 1 draw, 2 wins for Manchester United. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chelsea | 1.83 | 52 % | -15.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 25 % | +1.2 % |
| 2Manchester United | 4.05 | 24 % | +11.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Chelsea
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Manchester United
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Chelsea
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Manchester United
- Chelsea0-1Manchester United
- Manchester United2-1Chelsea
- Chelsea1-0Manchester United
- Manchester United1-1Chelsea
- Chelsea4-3Manchester United
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chelsea – Manchester United?
Our model gives 1 · Chelsea a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Chelsea win 46 %, draw 26 %, Manchester United win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Chelsea – Manchester United?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.